Despite signs of life in the Canadian housing market, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its expectations downward for 2025. That said, June still brought a bit of optimism: home sales rose 3.5% nationally compared to the same month last year.

Month-over-month, activity climbed 2.8% from May, suggesting the market is slowly regaining momentum. However, CREA’s latest forecast now anticipates 469,503 residential sales in 2025 — a 3% drop from 2024. Earlier this year, the outlook was flat year-over-year. That too had already been a downward revision from a more optimistic forecast of 8.6% growth made back in January.

 

💰 What’s Happening With Prices?

The average national home price is expected to fall by 1.7% next year, landing at $677,368 — roughly $10,000 less than CREA had forecasted back in April.

In June alone, the average sale price was $691,643, down 1.3% compared to the same time in 2024.

 

🌐 Market Recovery May Be Delayed, Not Derailed

CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart says we may still be on the path to recovery — just a little later than expected.

“June felt a lot like May in terms of activity,” he noted, adding that Canada’s housing market recovery may have just been delayed rather than derailed, citing lingering uncertainty around U.S.-Canada trade relations as a key factor.

CREA also pointed out that the impact of trade-related uncertainty earlier in the year hit key markets like Ontario, Alberta, and B.C. harder than expected. However, with interest rates beginning to ease, buyer confidence is expected to gradually return.

 

🏘️ Inventory & Listings Snapshot

There were 47,871 homes sold in June 2025, up from 46,237 in June 2024. Still, new listings dipped 2.9% from May, even though total active listings were up 11.4% year-over-year, bringing national inventory close to the long-term seasonal average.

Much of the sales momentum was driven by the Greater Toronto Area, where market activity has been picking up over the past two months.

 

🔮 Looking Ahead: 2026 Could Bring a Rebound

CREA’s updated forecast for 2026 is looking brighter. The association expects national home sales to climb 6.3% to 499,081, aligning more closely with the predictions made back in April.

Average prices are also expected to recover slightly, with a 3% increase forecasted, pushing the national average to $697,929.

 

🧠 Final Thoughts from the Experts

“June’s numbers reflect a market that’s gradually crawling back from earlier lows,” said TD economist Marc Ercolao. “We’re still expecting more activity in the second half of the year, but ongoing economic uncertainty — especially around tariffs — will likely keep things subdued.”

 

 

🏡 Thinking of Buying or Selling in 2025?

Keys & Co is keeping an eye on all market trends, so you don’t have to. Whether you’re planning to make a move this year or just want to stay informed, we’ve got you covered with the latest updates, insights, and expert advice.

 

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